Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
